2011112801

Opinion: Living With Mitt Romney

By Dr. Robert Moore,

The Raleigh Telegram

Monday, November 28, 2011

RALEIGH - The October 18th Republican presidential debate in Las Vegas concluded a string of eight nationally televised debates. Five of these have occurred since early September and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is widely considered to have “won” all eight debates.

Among nonpartisan analysts and political operatives, Romney is seen as a vastly improved debater and more disciplined candidate than he was in 2008. Millions of likely GOP voters, however, do not seem that impressed.

Formal and informal polls reveal that on average only 25% of Republican prefer him as their candidate.

ANYBODY BUT MITT

Dissatisfaction with the former Massachusetts Governor has produced bizarre political gyrations.

As Perry Bacon Jr. notes, the ambivalence of Republican voters has “turned the GOP nomination contest into an erratic mix of roller-coaster ride and dating game.” Moderate Republicans have yearned in vain for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and conservative voters have pined for Sarah Palin and more recently Chris Christie, the New Jersey Governor. All have declined to enter the race.

At the start of the primary season, the flamboyant non-candidate Donald Trump was the frontrunner. Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann then had her day in the sun, peaking at about 26% before dwindling to single digits.

Next, Texas Governor Rick Perry emerged as the temporary favorite. Now, the former Godfather Pizza CEO, Herman Cain, has become a surprisingly major factor.

The grassroots supporters seem to want to nominate any candidate not named Romney, despite the national media’s insistence that Romney has the best chance of unseating President Obama.

WHAT HAPPENED TO RICK?

Texas Governor Rick Perry bolted out of the gate and looked like the longed for “anti-Romney” until dismal debate performances led to suspicions that his heart wasn’t really in the race.

Evidence now suggests that the governor entered the race at the urging of his wife, Anita Perry, who believed “the Lord was calling” him to run.

Earlier this month in South Carolina, Mrs. Perry said that her husband initially “didn’t want to hear a thing about running for president.”

As she persisted, the governor said that he felt like he “needed to see the burning bush” of God’s intention for him. She replied, “God was already speaking to me . . . . . Let me tell you something: You might not see the burning bush, but other people are seeing it for you.”

POLLS & MONEY

Recent Washington Post-ABC News polls revealed that Perry’s support among self described “very conservative” Republicans and GOP-leaning independents has plummeted from 45% in September to 18% in October.

A Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll of all likely Republican primary voters found Perry’s support falling from 38% in late August to 16% by early October.

In the October 18 debate, Perry showed signs of rallying with what the New York Times called “a newly assertive” and “more combative style.” As Chris Cillizza observed, he “actually seemed like he wanted to be there; he was energetic and feisty.”

In a clear swipe at Governor Romney who was standing to his right, Perry delivered one of the more effective one-liners of the night by declaring that he was “an authentic conservative—not a conservative of convenience.”

For the immediate future, Perry’s advantages include a debate-free schedule until November 9 and a huge cache of Texas money to deploy in attacking Romney.

AND THEN THERE WAS HERMAN

By mid-October, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain was riding his signature “9-9-9” tax plan to become Romney’s leading challenger.

Cain proposes to replace the current federal tax code with a 9% corporate tax rate, a 9% income tax rate, and a 9% national sales tax.

Before the allegations of sexual harassment arose in the national media that put a damper on Cain’s popularity, reporter Dan Balz noted that Cain had been rising “on the strength of a buoyant personality and a catchy tax plan that has captured the imagination of many conservative Republicans.”

When his opponents ganged up on him during the October 18 debate, Cain countered that his plan was under attack because “lobbyists, accountants, politicians—they don’t want to throw out the current tax code and put in something that’s simple and fair.”

Governor Romney, who has a 59-point economic program, has responded to Cain’s proposals by suggesting that simple answers “are often inadequate” and that a more comprehensive approach is needed.

Even so, many Tea Party supporters and conservative activists appreciate the passion and rhetoric of the former Godfather CEO. They are unlikely to be dissuaded by such caricatures as the Cain lookalike on Saturday Night Live who said, “If people want catchy unworkable solutions to complicated problems, Herman Cain will keep ‘em comin’.”

WHAT IS MITT”S PROBLEM?

Although national political analysts generally agree that Romney would be the most effective GOP general election candidate, he has received little love and affection from his own party.

He has been running hard for president since 2007 but his 2011 support among Republicans has consistently remained below 30% in most polls.

Romney’s difficulties can be attributed, in large part, to “disconnects” with belief systems within the Party’s conservative base:

• When Romney tried to unseat Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) in 1994, he supported Roe v. Wade and advocated that “abortion should be safe and legal in this country.”

• Without convincingly explaining his change of mind, the governor now wants Roe v. Wade reversed. As reporter Neil King Jr. points out, Romney now contends that “abortion should be limited only to instances of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother.” Even this position is too “moderate” for millions of anti-abortion supporters.

• Most conservatives can’t stomach the health-care mandate that he championed as Massachusetts Governor. Conservatives generally agree with former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) who recently declared, “Mr. Romney, you don’t have credibility when it comes to [repealing] Obamacare...your plan was the basis for Obamacare.”

• During his Massachusetts tenure, the governor advocated “full equality” for gays and lesbians, a position he has since abandoned.

• Evangelical leader and close-Perry ally Robert Jeffress said earlier this month that “Mormonism is not Christianity.” He was simply expressing a widely-held belief among his followers. Conceding that his comment was “not politically correct,” Jeffress insisted that “Mormonism is a cult” and that Mormons are not “part of the Christian family.”

• In a September Gallup poll, 20% of Republicans and 23% of Protestants said that they could not support a Mormon for president.

• The governor’s current approach is to evade discussing certain Mormon teachings. As the Wall Street Journal notes, his strategy is “to deflect questions about his religion” and to avoid explaining actual Mormon practices.

ROMNEY’S BEST HOPE: OBAMA

The essence of the GOP’s “Romney dilemma” is that he is widely seen as their most viable general election candidate. Yet, as pollster Peter Hart points out, he is the kind of politician who even at his best inspires “respect, not passion.”

Ironically, Romney’s best hope to get his party’s nomination may be the looming presence of President Barack Obama. As the President seems to be regaining his political footing and as his campaign coffers fill up, he may not be as easy to dislodge as many thought this summer.

With a reinvigorated Obama reelection campaign, many Republican leaders believe that they cannot afford to nominate a candidate unless he or she can appeal to moderate Democrats and Independents.

These “leaders,” however, may not be able to carry the day in their party’s primaries. Open questions remain—Will the GOP’s rank and file want to replace the current incumbent of the White House badly enough to vote with their heads, not their hearts?

Will this party nominate someone whom millions of them neither like nor trust to carry their banner in 2012? ::

ABOUT ROBERT MOORE:

Dr. Robert H. Moore, our national columnist, was chairman and president of the Washington, D.C. research and analysis company, A & A Government & Industry Affairs, Inc. He also served as president of a national trade association and as the New York based Conference Board’s Emerging Issues Coordinator. He was a U.S. Army captain and faculty member at West Point and also taught at Wisconsin and Maryland. He is the coauthor of two award winning books, Spreading the Risks (with Jack Bogardus) and the Oxford University Press School for Soldiers: West Point and the Profession of Arms (with Joseph Ellis).

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